Future Fred at Sea: Looking Closer to Home

The tropical wave in the east Atlantic, 96L Invest, continues to organize and may be upgraded to a depression at 5PM EDT. 96L will likely strengthen into a tropical storm and potentially our second hurricane of the season. Model guidance is not backing off on the idea of quick recurvature out to sea ahead of an oncoming trough. "Fred" is not expected to pose any threat to landmasses.

A weak area of low pressure off the Carolina coast is not expected to strengthen. Upper air conditions are not favorable. Of slightly more interest is the potential lowering of surface pressures in the Gulf of Mexico in 5-7 days. No models are showing tropical cyclone formation, but they do suggest that this could be an area to watch down the road. Upper air conditions should become slightly more conducive ahead of an approaching cold front that will approach the upper Texas coast in about 6 days. The favorable pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation will also be entering the western portion of the Atlantic basin around this timeframe. The models are keying in on the Bay of Campeche and southwest Gulf the most. Any low pressure that forms in this area has a better chance of lifting north rathern than drifting into Mexico.

Fred on the Way; No Threat

A strong tropical wave (96L Invest) has exited the African coast within the last 24 hours. Nearly all dynamical guidance (CMC, GFS, ECMWF, UKMET) shows intensification into a strong tropical storm or hurricane. The Hurricane Center has given it a 30-50% chance of development within 48 hours. Water vapor imagery reveals a very favorable environment with plenty of moisture and upper ridging aloft, thus little shear. 96L will likely become "Fred" in the coming days, but all models show recurvature into a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge. This tropical system poses no threat to land.

No Threats in Forseeable Future

The remnnant of Erika is showing no signs of organization and the tropical waves in the east Atlantic look much of the same. The east Atlantic waves has some chance of development, but they are also good candidates for recurvature well away from any landmasses. The tropical Atlantic will get another look tomorrow or Monday, but for now all is quiet.

Erika Degenerates into Depression

As of 5PM EDT the National Hurricane Center has downgraded Erika to a tropical depression. This comes as no surprise given the high shear and dry air that has been talked about the past few days. Upper air conditions are expected to remain unfavorable across the Caribbean. Furthermore, the weak center will have to contend with mountainous Hispaniola. Erika will likely degenerate into an open wave. Nevertheless, Erika's remnant will continue to be monitored as it heads toward the Bahamas.

Elsewhere, model guidance suggests that 1-2 tropical cyclones may form from tropical waves about to exit the coast of Africa. The models also depict a vigorous trough in the central Atlantic. This trough would quickly recurve any tropical systems that quickly strengthen in the east Atlantic.

Erika Remains Weak

Tropical Storm Erika is having major issues with southwest shear being generated by the subtropical jet across the Caribbean. Erika will have to contend with this jet axis for at least the next several days. Little development or even dissipation is possible, especially if the center crosses the high terrain of Hispaniola. Most guidance continues to take Erika north of Hispaniola, but there has been a westward trend with time. The models that intensify (incorrectly) the storm are indicating recurvature in the west Atlantic whereas the models that keep Erika weak show a continued west-northwest motion. The official forecast from the Hurricane Center continues to follow a blend between both scenarios.

The current thinking here is that Erika will remain a weak depression/storm or possibly even open into a strong tropical wave as it rides along the Great Antilles. A weaker, low level-controlled, system will not feel the effects of the trough in the mid levels as much as a more intense storm. In the medium range, Erika or its wave axis could travel as far west as the Florida peninsula or eastern Gulf before being pulled north by a secondary trough. This forecast will verify only if Erika remains weak. Otherwise, the more northerly tracks will verify. Finally, it is too early to determine if conditions will be favorable for intensification or redevelopment once near Florida.