Erika Remains Weak

Tropical Storm Erika is having major issues with southwest shear being generated by the subtropical jet across the Caribbean. Erika will have to contend with this jet axis for at least the next several days. Little development or even dissipation is possible, especially if the center crosses the high terrain of Hispaniola. Most guidance continues to take Erika north of Hispaniola, but there has been a westward trend with time. The models that intensify (incorrectly) the storm are indicating recurvature in the west Atlantic whereas the models that keep Erika weak show a continued west-northwest motion. The official forecast from the Hurricane Center continues to follow a blend between both scenarios.

The current thinking here is that Erika will remain a weak depression/storm or possibly even open into a strong tropical wave as it rides along the Great Antilles. A weaker, low level-controlled, system will not feel the effects of the trough in the mid levels as much as a more intense storm. In the medium range, Erika or its wave axis could travel as far west as the Florida peninsula or eastern Gulf before being pulled north by a secondary trough. This forecast will verify only if Erika remains weak. Otherwise, the more northerly tracks will verify. Finally, it is too early to determine if conditions will be favorable for intensification or redevelopment once near Florida.