Fred on the Way; No Threat

A strong tropical wave (96L Invest) has exited the African coast within the last 24 hours. Nearly all dynamical guidance (CMC, GFS, ECMWF, UKMET) shows intensification into a strong tropical storm or hurricane. The Hurricane Center has given it a 30-50% chance of development within 48 hours. Water vapor imagery reveals a very favorable environment with plenty of moisture and upper ridging aloft, thus little shear. 96L will likely become "Fred" in the coming days, but all models show recurvature into a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge. This tropical system poses no threat to land.