9:45 PM EDT Update: TD2 is back. Advisories will likely be reinstated either tonight or early in the morning. An image of both developing cyclones has been posted.
Invest 90L is still having some difficulty organizing, although it maintains a large and healthy low-level circulation. Slow development is expected to occur over the next few days, followed by a quicker pace of intensification once the system has fully consolidated.
The main reason to update, however, is the new data from the 12z models. The GFS has not changed its tune, and continues to show a significant tropical cyclone bearing down on the Windward Islands and then Puerto Rico and Hispaniola at days 5 and 6. The CMC has shifted northward and now takes the strong system just north of the Caribbean islands during the same timeframe. On the other hand, the UKMET has shifted slightly south and faster, taking it on a similar trajectory as shown by the GFS. The tropical model GFDL has also shifted south, while its counterpart, the HWRF, continues to insist on a track just north of the islands. Finally, the ECMWF has also shifted a little bit south from its extreme outlier solution, although it keeps it on a path well north of the Caribbean islands.
As discussed in the past few posts, the ECMWF is likely too slow with the system in the near-term. Such a slow forward speed would allow it to more notably feel the impact of a passing weakness in the subtropical ridge. A faster speed would mitigate any poleward component necessitated by the weakness. Given the current forward speed and synoptic pattern, the GFS and UKMET are the favored solutions. In fact, it would not be surprising to see the track shift even further south, as the models may be overintensifying the storm in the near-term.
Therefore, the threat to the eastern Caribbean islands has only grown stronger. Residents in this area are advised to closely monitor the progress of the developing system.
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