The strong tropical wave south of the Cape Verde Islands (90L INVEST) continues to show signs of slow organization this morning. It takes a bit longer for such large waves to consolidate. There's still every reason to expect a significant hurricane by the time it makes it into the central Atlantic. Model guidance continues to show hardly any wind shear and the unfavorable Saharan Air Layer will remain well north of the developing storm system. The SHIPS hurricane intensity model brings 90L near major hurricane (Category 3) status by Tuesday night. The GFS, CMC, ECMWF, and UKMET all continue to indicate a very significant hurricane.
Major disagreement among the models regarding 90L's future track still exists. The CMC, GFS, and UKMET all show a major hurricane barreling into the northeast Caribbean on Wednesday give or take 24 hours. However, for the 3rd consecutive run, the ECMWF is recurving 90L away from the Caribbean and out to sea. The model is detecting a central Atlantic weakness in the subtropical ridge strong enough to turn 90L north. The other models are not as pronounce with the troughing during that timeframe. The ECMWF is a major outlier, but it wouldn't be the first time it has beaten the remaining model consensus. Interests in the northeast Caribbean should hope the ECMWF is correct, but also prepare in case the turn doesn't occur. There may be better model agreement once the new guidance comes out this afternoon. Stay tuned.
It cannot be said with 100% confidence whether 90L will miss the central Atlantic trough. Therefore it has been decided not to bring US threat scenarios into discussion at this time.
Elsewhere, the remnant of Tropical Depression Two will soon be torn apart by westerly shear of the western Atlantic. The tropical wave approaching Florida and the Gulf of Mexico will encounter similar conditions.
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