91L Forms, Ana Struggles, Bill Organizaing

Quick notes:

91L Invest has formed form a tropical wave in the southeast Gulf. This is the same wave we forecast would enter the Gulf over the past week. The models generally didn't do much with this system, nor did we anticipate more than some Gulf Coast rain from it. That said, a low is trying to form just west of Tampa tonight. Convection is firing near the center, and given persistence, a surface circulation could be present by tomorrow morning. 91L has roughly 24 hours to develop into a depression or named storm before making landfall between Mississippi and Apalachicola. Heavy rain and dangerous swimming conditions will remain the highest threats.

Ana continues to struggle under strong westerly shear. The global models continue to do next to nothing with the storm. But as we see from 91L, the lack of model support doesn't mean any storm should be entirely written off. Ana should continue to struggle with the shear, not to mention the possibility of it crossing over the high mountains of Hispaniola. Little strengthening is expected until it enters the southeast Gulf in 5 days and by then there may not be anything left of the storm.

Bill is ready to make a run at hurricane status by the looks of his satellite appearance. The models have done quite well with their correct assumptions of favorable conditions for intensification. Bill will likely end up reaching major hurricane status. The good news to report is that many of the models are trending toward the original ECMWF solution of recurvature north of the islands and out to sea (barring Bermuda). The GFS and CMC are no longer showing tracks straight through the Caribbean. By no means should residents in the Caribbean breathe a sigh of relief yet. Continue monitoring this storm!