Danny Arriving Later Today?

92L INVEST, the tropical wave in the western Atlantic, is strengthening this morning. Yesterday, NHC recon aircraft flew into the wave and found tropical storm force winds but no well defined surface circulation. This morning's visible imagery suggest that found tropical storm force winds (due to persistence of yesterday's convection) AND a surface circulation are now present. Therefore, it is likely that the National Hurricane Center will upgrade 92L to Tropical Storm Danny later this morning or afternoon. Overall, however, conditions still aren't favorable for any rapid strengthening. The strongest convection and winds remain well northeast of the center due to southwest shear. The upper level lows responsible for the shear should remain in close proxmity to 92L.

Overnight model guidance came into better agreement with a track remaining barely east of the Carolinas with only a couple exceptions. A persistent trough is still expected to recurve 92L just east of the Carolinas, but interests in this area are far from being in the clear. Any slight deviation to the left of the model tracks would place the storm right over the Outerbanks. Furthermore, there is equal uncertainty as to whether the storm system will continue due northward into the Mid-Atlantic and New England states. Even if it did, the storm may be subtropical or extratropical as it merges with a frontal period by that time. There's still a few days remaining to sort the forecast out and interests from North Carolina to the oceanic territories of Canadia need to keep up with the official forecasts.