Watching the West Atlantic

First, i'd like to apologize for the lack of updates. A recent illness has put the blog out of commission for a while. There's no set schedule for updates, but it still hasn't been updated as much as i'd like.

92L has formed north of Puerto Rico. Several models are showing 92L developing into a tropical storm or minimal hurricane over the coming days. However, rapid development is unlikely due to the fact that moderate southwest shear is unlikely to significantly weaken. The culprit behind the shear are two upper lows just to the west of 92L's wave axis. The upper level lows will remain in relative close proximity to 92L through the period. 92L should become the next named storm of the season, but a hurricane is probably unlikely given the only marginally favorable upper winds.

There's some disagreement among models in regards to the track of 92L. The GFS shows recurvature away from the US East Coast and landfall along Canada (ala Bill). to the contrary the UKMET, CMC, and ECMWF have it making landfall in NC and then moving northward. The models do agree on the overall pattern in which a broad trough over the eastern US will eventually induce a northerly turn. Perhaps the greatest cause for disagreement is where the models first develop a low center. The UKMET, CMC, and ECMWF develop the low further south and west than the GFS, which would make sense given there aforementioned track forecasts.

So which model solution has the better chance of verifying? In light of satellite trends, the GFS solution looks more probable. Visible satellite imagery confirms that the strongest low level inflow is setting up along the northern end of the inverted "V" of the wave axis. This is typically the area where low pressure tends to form. A surface low is expected to form somewhere near 25N/65W, which is well north of where all of the western model tracks have it.

Summary: "Danny" is expected to form within the next few days. Our best initial guestimate is a track remaining just east of the US, but Canada gets struck as it begins to acquire subtropical characteristics. Nevertheless, all interests from the Carolinas, northward should monitor the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center. The East Coase is not safe this early in the game, nor should strengthening into a hurricane be entirely ruled uout.