Danny - East Coast or No Go?

Tropical Storm Danny was upgraded at 11AM eastern, but the surface circulation remains exposed well to the west of the most concentrated thunderstorm activity. The shear-causing upper lows remain near Danny, and they will stay in the area through the forseeable future. The official forecast makes Danny a borderline Category 1 hurricane before it becomes extratropical as it nears landfall near New England or Nova Scotia. That forecast is in agreement with the intensity model consensus. That said, given water vapor trends, it is hard to fathom conditions becoming very conducive within the next few days. A moderate 55-65mph tropical or subtropical storm prior to extratropical transition may be more likely.

Half of the models show Danny making landfall along coast North Carolina and riding north into New England whereas the other half remain offshore. If anything, the model consensus has shifted east some today. The NHC forecast shifted to the right by a few miles between 11PM and 5PM. Furthermore, Danny's current structure would suggest that any future shifts in track would have an eastward tendency. Weak and exposed surface circulations often relocate closer to the most concentrated convection; complete reformation can commence on occassion. In this case, the center may shift further north and east. The final visible frames for this evening evening hinted at this scenario already being underway. Danny should remain just off the US eastern seaboard, but this is not the time to let one's guard down. The Canadian provinces should anticipate direct impacts.