94L Organizing Quickly

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic (94L INVEST) is organizing and could easily be classified a tropical cyclone withint the next 24 hours. 94L has been structurally sound the past 36 hours, but convection has been lacking near the low level circulation. The trend has apparently ended this morning, with thunderstorm activitiy consolidating right over a developing surface circulation. Upper level winds appear favorable for steady intensification at least in the short term. Two upper lows to the west and north, respectively, are far enough away from 94L to enhance the favorable ridging directly over it. 94L should remain on a general west-northwest heading over the next few days. 94L will pass at least very close, if not directly over, the northeast Caribbean within the next few days. Interests there should follow the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center.

As stated before, conditions at least in the short term look favorable for intensification. Whether those conditions persist over the next 5-10 days may determine if 94L is a threat to the Southeast USA. A pattern change is underway. East coast and New England ridging will slowly replace the East Coast troughing that has been in place for the past couple months. The ridging should encompass much of the west Atlantic and southeast by the time 94L makes it to those areas further south. 94L should remain on a west to WNW heading under the ridge.