No Need to Fright Over 94L Yet

94L certainly continues to look better than it has the past few days. A well defined surface circulation is still lacking however. That was the main emphasis in the afternoon outlook from the National Hurricane Center. Conditions are marginally favorable for slow development the next couple days. Even if Erika forms soon, no rapid intensification is expected at least over the next 5 days. An unfavorable upper trough (enhanced by El Nino) located over the Greater Antilles wil not move much at all. Wind shear over the disturbance will probably increase as a result.

94L should be near or north of Hispaniola by Saturday morning. If it unexpectedly becomes a more potent storm by then, it will be more likely to recurve into a trough over the west Atlantic. If 94 remains generally weak, then it will likely remain embedded in low level easterly flow for an extended period. Thereafter, high pressure would build over the East coast and push the disturbance toward the Florida peninsula. It is too early to say whether conditions would be more favorable for development by the time it reaches the Bahamas if the second scenario pans out.

There's a lot of questions remaining but there's a lot of time for them to be answered. 94L isn't expected to do much of anything too terribly fast. Elsewhere, the tropics are generally quiet. The GFS and ECMWF models have been depicting a strong wave exiting Africa within the next few days. It may exit Africa at a very high latitude, however, resulting in a higher chance of recurvature whether it develops into a storm or not.