Saturday, August 29, 2009

Next?

Danny has become extratropical and the majority of the worst weather is remaining off the New England coast. 94L is still being monitored in the central Atlantic but it's not looking overly impressive. Other than the CMC model, it doesn't have much model support. There's not much else in the basin at this time.

Despite the relative slow season, a moderate burst is likely at some point next month as we inch closer to the climatological peak of hurricane season. The US mainland and surrounding areas also aren't out of the woods. Some of the slowest hurricane seasons on record still produced destructive landfalling major hurricanes. The annual seasonal forecast released in late May called for a more favorable US landfall pattern come September. The synoptic pattern was forecast to transition, with a ridge taking shape across the US Eastern seaboard, New England, and southeast Canada. Several GFS ensemble members are showing this pattern taking shape as we enter the first week of September.

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    Jason Moreland is a meteorology undergraduate at the University of South Alabama. The blog has no set schedule. New blogs are typically posted time permitting and when the Atlantic tropics and Southeast US weather are active. The information posted here is unofficial and strictly personal opinion. Refer to National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center for official forecasts.