Significant Model Update

There is a fairly significant model update to report this morning. The 0Z ECMWF model run is now significantly developing the tropical wave exiting Africa this hour. This is the same wave the GFS has been developing into a potentially major hurricane for the past several runs. Agreement among the GFS and ECMWF is often highly coveted among forecasters. It should also be mentioned that the Canadian CMC model also perfectly agrees with the GFS/ECMWF so there is a solid consensus. It is too early to determine whether the tropical system will directly or indirectly impact the Caribbean.

In other news, 99L (near the Cape Verde Islands) is showing improving organization. Latest Dvorak estimates are now 2.0/2.0. The National Hurricane Center could easily go code "red" at 8AM eastern, meaning that tropical cyclone formation is imminent. We very well could be dealing with a Tropical Depression later today.