Lets jump right into it. Tropical Depression 2 is looking better organized this morning. It looks like convection has flared over the low level circulation, but we won't know for sure until morning visible imagery becomes available. Light easterly shear has kept the eastern periphery of the circulation exposed over the past day or so. If the circulation isn't exposed, then it is likely the Hurricane Center will upgrade TD2 to Tropical Storm Ana later this morning. The latest official position estimate is .2 degrees further south than the prior one. TD2 is ever so slightly south of the NHC forecast track for the time being.
The latest forecast guidance keeps TD2 north of the Lesser Antilles by Day 6. However, it is our current thinking that while a landfall in the Caribbean isn't expected, TD2 will pass closer to the northeast Caribbean than what is being forecast by the NHC. First, the guidance has been trending ever so slightly westward with each update. Second, TD2 is currently moving a tad south of the official forecast. Finally, the model consensus is not showing any significant weaknesses in the Atlantic high pressure to the north. A bit more southerly track would also suggest that the intensity forecast could be a bit conservative. The strongest upper level westerly shear along a subtropical jet axis in the central Atlantic would remain just north of the storm. TD2 would also remain in warmer waters. Beyond day 6, the ECMWF recurves the storm away from the US East Coast. Such a recurvature is questionable considering that none of the models are showing much of a weakness in the high along the East Coast. We'll have to wait and see.
TD 2 Summary: TD2 is expected to become Ana later today. A closer track toward the Caribbean is expected to take shape, but a direct landfall is not expected. That said, residents in the northeast Caribbean should still monitor this developing storm closely. The synoptic pattern may support a continued path toward the East Coast, but there are many uncertainties.
Elsewhere, the National Hurricane Center has just begun to acknowledge the strong tropical wave that just exited Africa in their Tropical Weather Outlook. The NHC is calling for potential slow development of this system. Such appears very likely considering shear is light, African dry air is minimal, and water temperatures at its latitude are warm. The GFS, ECMWF, and CMC models all continue to show this wave developing into a powerful hurricane over the next 5-7 day period. Furthermore, the aforementioned models are showing a more westerly path toward the Lesser and Greater Antilles. There's still plenty of time for things to change, but the models are showing no significant weaknesses in the steering flow through the period. There is no need to be worried, but interests in these areas may as well review their hurricane preparedness plans due to the upcoming increase in tropical activity. The general timeframe places this system in the "general" area of Hispaniola around the 21st give or take a couple days.
Another area to keep an eye on heading into the weekend will be the Gulf of Mexico. No development is expected, but a weak tropical wave currently over the central Atlantic will be entering the Gulf during this period. The Canadian model wants to develop this wave into a tropical cyclone once in the Gulf, but the remaining guidance keeps it a wave. It's worth watching, but for now all one should expect from this is an increase in rain chances along the Gulf Coast.
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