Morning Guidance: High Uncertainty Remains

This morning's guidance hasn't solved much. If anything they only beg to ask more questions. This shouldn't come as much of a surpise though since we're dealing primarily with two tropical systems that are still very far out in the Atlantic.

Tropical Depression Two is evidently struggling significantly this morning. TD2 came close to reaching tropical storm status briefly yesterday afternoon, but has been on a downward spiral ever since. A combination of continued easterly shear, dry air entrainment from the northeast, and marginal water temperatures have really put a hamper on the depression. The easterly shear will soon be replaced by westerly shear along the central Atlantic subtropical jet axis. There's still an outside chance we may see gradual intensification over the next few days, but dissipation is more likely. Nevertheless, TD2 or its remnant will be monitored for any sign of regeneration as it heads toward the west Atlantic. This morning's guidance now shows a decent model consensus of a track toward the US East Coast. A weaker tropical system is harder to be picked up by mid to upper level troughs in the western Atlantic.

The much talked about tropical wave behind TD2 is now directly south of the Cape Verde Islands. Early morning infrared imagery shows that convection is on the rise. Gradual organization should commence as conditions remain favorable for development. TD2 is moistening up the atmosphere ahead of the system and shear is minimal. The GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and now the UKMET all suggest that a significant hurricane will be treking across the central Atlantic over the next 5+ days. Furthermore the GFS, CMC, and UKMET all agree that the hypothetical hurricane will be bearing down on the Lesser Antilles by Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. However, for whatever reason the ECMWF is showing a much slower storm with the closest time of approach being Wednesday night and into Thursday. The morning run of the ECMWF is also the furthest north, keeping the storm north of the islands. While the ECMWF solution would be good news for the Caribbean, it does seem suspect since it has no support from the other aforementioned models. The more northerly track is also questionable because the ECMWF itself doesn't show much in the way of a weakness in the high to the north. Regardless of current guidance, interests in the northeast Caribbean should expect to be within the cone of error in coming days. It would be wise to get an early start to preparations just in case the storm does in fact pass through the islands.

There's too many variables to attempt to assess the US threat at this time. Elsewhere, the wave that will be over the Gulf this weekend is nearing the Bahamas. Convection is still flaring this morning, but upper winds are not favorable. None of the models do much with this system. Nevertheless, tropical downpours will be on the rise as the wave axis approaches.