Erika Degenerates into Depression

As of 5PM EDT the National Hurricane Center has downgraded Erika to a tropical depression. This comes as no surprise given the high shear and dry air that has been talked about the past few days. Upper air conditions are expected to remain unfavorable across the Caribbean. Furthermore, the weak center will have to contend with mountainous Hispaniola. Erika will likely degenerate into an open wave. Nevertheless, Erika's remnant will continue to be monitored as it heads toward the Bahamas.

Elsewhere, model guidance suggests that 1-2 tropical cyclones may form from tropical waves about to exit the coast of Africa. The models also depict a vigorous trough in the central Atlantic. This trough would quickly recurve any tropical systems that quickly strengthen in the east Atlantic.

Erika Remains Weak

Tropical Storm Erika is having major issues with southwest shear being generated by the subtropical jet across the Caribbean. Erika will have to contend with this jet axis for at least the next several days. Little development or even dissipation is possible, especially if the center crosses the high terrain of Hispaniola. Most guidance continues to take Erika north of Hispaniola, but there has been a westward trend with time. The models that intensify (incorrectly) the storm are indicating recurvature in the west Atlantic whereas the models that keep Erika weak show a continued west-northwest motion. The official forecast from the Hurricane Center continues to follow a blend between both scenarios.

The current thinking here is that Erika will remain a weak depression/storm or possibly even open into a strong tropical wave as it rides along the Great Antilles. A weaker, low level-controlled, system will not feel the effects of the trough in the mid levels as much as a more intense storm. In the medium range, Erika or its wave axis could travel as far west as the Florida peninsula or eastern Gulf before being pulled north by a secondary trough. This forecast will verify only if Erika remains weak. Otherwise, the more northerly tracks will verify. Finally, it is too early to determine if conditions will be favorable for intensification or redevelopment once near Florida.

Hurricane News around the Web

Monthly tropical cyclone activity in the northern hemisphere ended slightly above average last August. Northern hemisphere activity still remains well below average for the year. Click here for the details.

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